While voters are somewhat split on which party should have control of Congress, Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
By The Numbers:
Sixty-six percent of voters said they are likely to vote in the congressional election in November. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats said they are likely to vote, compared to just 65% of Republicans who said they are likely to vote. Fifty-six percent of Independents said they are likely to vote.
The generic ballot is relatively close. Forty-seven percent of voters said they would vote for the Democrat candidate if the election was today, compared to 45% who said they would vote for the Republican candidate.
Of those who said they will support the Democrat candidate, 55% said they are certain to vote, compared to just 44% who said they would support the Republican candidate.
The Bottom Line: Overall, the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos generic ballot (GOP -2) is one of the more positive match-ups for Republicans, as RealClearPolitics.com puts the Democratic average ballot at 47.3% to Republicans’ 42.9% (GOP -4.4). Their lagging ballot shows that Democrats clearly have not had a successful rebrand since the 2024 election, nor have they successfully convinced voters that they are the party to be trusted on the economy and/or immigration. The waning enthusiasm for Republicans, on the other hand, shows that they have not collectively brought the affordability message to kitchen tables and their voters are in a state of malaise. Whichever party succeeds at meeting voters where they are most effectively likely has the better night in November.
