It looks as if we’ll have another government shutdown. On Friday House Republicans passed a continuing resolution to fund the government. In response, Senate Democrats demanded that the resolution extend Biden-era ObamaCare subsidies that soon expire. Republicans won’t do that, but a continuing resolution requires 60 votes in the Senate, meaning the GOP needs seven Democrats to vote “aye.”
Both sides are dug in. On Tuesday President Trump canceled a meeting he’d accepted Monday with Democratic leaders, calling their demands “unserious and ridiculous.”
If Americans get stuck with a shutdown that drags on, there will be a cost. But which party will pay the political price?
History gives us an idea. There have been 10 government shutdowns since 1980, three of which lasted more than a handful of days.
The first of these significant shutdowns was a political win for Democrats. It ran from Dec. 16, 1995, to Jan. 6, 1996, and the debate was over when the U.S. would get a balanced budget. Republicans wanted one in seven years, President Bill Clinton in 10. The immediate disagreement was over Medicare spending. The GOP wanted less. The president wanted more, so he vetoed a Republican continuing resolution.
The GOP responded with a short-term resolution that won Mr. Clinton’s approval. But when it expired on Dec. 16, neither he nor Republicans budged. For the next 21 days, much of the government remained shuttered—until the GOP gave in.
Polling projected a shutdown would be a loser for Republicans. In a November 1995 ABC/Washington Post survey, Americans blamed Republicans more than Mr. Clinton for the budget impasse, 49% to 34%. When the shutdown actually hit, Mr. Clinton’s approval in the Gallup poll dropped from 53% to 41%, then rebounded to 52% by late January.
The voter reaction to the shutdown appeared to help Democrats in the 1996 election. Mr. Clinton beat Sen. Bob Dole, 379-159, with a popular-vote margin of 8.5%. Republicans lost four House seats and picked up two Senate seats only because they were up for grabs in the increasingly red South.
The next major shutdown—in October 2013—panned out differently. Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) convinced GOP House members to pass a continuing resolution to defund ObamaCare, which had no chance in the Senate. Fourteen Democratic senators would have had to vote to repeal President Barack Obama’s prized legislative achievement. Democrats were happy to see the media slam Republicans for closing the government. After 16 days, GOP members caved, settling for stricter income-eligibility rules for ObamaCare as a face-saver.
A survey just ahead of the shutdown made it look like Republicans would be the marginal loser: Thirty-nine percent of Americans said they would blame the GOP and 36% the Obama administration. In Gallup polling, Mr. Obama’s approval was relatively stable, dropping from 45% before to 42% during the shutdown, then inching back to 43% after.
